The future is cancelled

Today is that most exciting of events, Opening Day. The start of a spanking new outdoor season of bowling. Even more exciting, being a fortnight earlier than previous years. Two weeks more bowling. Two extra weeks to get up to speed before competitions and league matches start. The weather is 20°c and sunny, the green perfection.

Or rather, it should have been Opening Day today. Coronavirus COVID 19 has cancelled all bowling events and much else that counts towards a civilised society.

This won't be news to anyone who reads this post. Like much on the website, it's written for my future self. For when I'm in my dotage and no longer able to play bowls. When fond memories are all that remain and a bit of help with recall is needed.

The whole world is in lockdown. Any country who isn't yet following the lockdown rules is regarded as irresponsible. In the UK we're in the second week of social isolation. No leaving the house except for necessary shopping and an hour's exercise a day. No nearer than two metres to anyone other than those with whom you share your home. So no getting together with family or friends. No grandchildren.

Passed most probably from bats in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, within three months it has spread throughout the world. According to the World Health Organisation, most who catch it will experience 'a mild to moderate respiratory illness and recover without any requiring any special treatment'. For anyone with an underlying health problem it is much more deadly.

There's lots of confusion about what the pandemic is actually doing to humans. Currently there are more than one million confirmed cases of Coronavirus in 181 countries. More than 51,000 people have died. Of course there are many more who have caught the virus. In some cases they may not even realize they've had it. And those who have died almost exclusively had underlying health conditions. It's possible many actually died from heart failure or other ailments but because they also had Coronavirus their death has been registered against that cause. The BBC reported on Thursday the death of comedian Eddie Large, using the term he 'died with Coronavirus'. He didn't actually die from the virus. He was already in hospital suffering heart failure.

The vital statistics are that 80% of those who catch it will not require any special treatment. 20% will need hospitalisation, with 5% requiring intensive care. Since most cases go unreported, it is believed the death rate is less than 1%, or about ten times the rate of seasonal flu.

Any death is devastating for the family of someone suffering from Coronavirus. Nevertheless, why has society as we know it come to a stop? It's all about protecting the National Health Service (NHS). Ensuring the NHS isn't overwhelmed. We need 30,000 ventilators. Originally there were 5,000. We're also planning to test 100,000 people a week, both for if they have the virus, or have already had it and are now immune. It's going to take to the end of April to get anywhere near those targets. The crisis is expected to peak in the next week.

The BBC produced a graph of Coronavirus cases by location which is very enlightening (page down a bit to view it). Live in the USA and it's not so much enlightening as frightening. If American voters were struggling to get rid of their idiot of a President in the coming election, his poor management of the crisis will do that for them.

The UK Government is spending serious money. It's paying 80% of the wages of employees laid off, up to £2,500 per month. There's also support for self-employed and small to medium sized companies. Lots more public money is going on medical supplies and setting up huge field hospitals in conference centres up and down the UK.

Any business which is not termed essential is shut. No pubs, restaurants, tea rooms. No offices, banks or other workplaces. Everyone longs to get back to normal, even though 'back to normal' may no longer exist in the near future even after Coronavirus has gone.

The media are full of bad news. A disgracefully scaremongering ITV News bulletin by Tom Bradby a few days ago tried to make out the death of a 13 year old was a new trend. It was not. Even though youngsters are at much less risk of death from the virus, inevitably some will die. That's statistics for you. Professor David Spiegelhalter of the University of Cambridge and statistical God highlighted a few interesting facts about Coronavirus in BBC Radio 4's More or Less. He suggests we may not have more deaths over the next twelve months than normal, though we're likely to have much more in the next few weeks.

The big question is, what happens once infection rates start to decrease? That will happen purely because we're all self-isolating and social distancing. How do we get from where we are now back to normal society? As soon as restrictions are relaxed, won't we experience another surge of infections, yet another crisis?

The only long term solution seems to be that those who have most to fear must self-isolate until a vaccine is found. The rest of the population should accept infection and get back to a normal life. Put in place for three weeks, the current restrictions have just over another week to run. There is no way the UK public will accept a long term lockdown. Might not even survive the coming Easter break in a week's time. And goodness knows what will happen when everyone realises the future of our children, grandchildren and beyond has been mortgaged.

Bowling-wise, there will be no County or National competitions this year. Pity, since I was going to be the 2020 National Two Bowls Champion 🤣. If we can get back on the green by July, should at least be able to complete the Men's Fours Thursday evening league by playing Tuesday and Thursday evenings. Should also get some Club competitions up and running. Ever hopeful!

The back garden is looking better than ever. Desperately trying to avoid indoor painting jobs. With no takeaways or visits to tea rooms we're saving £250 a month. Hopefully apply some of that to the current fixation, the Samsung Galaxy Note 10.

Further updates will follow as each bowling milestone is passed.